Stock Meadow · Economy
US economy at a glance: interest rates, the yield curve and the economic calendar
The latest federal funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield, inflation, unemployment and mortgage rate, today's Treasury yield curve, and the US data releases coming up, in one place.
The economy today
- Federal funds rate3.75%Up 0.12 points from 3.63% (Aug 2026)Reading for Sep 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield5.09%Down 0.01 points from 5.10% (Oct 15, 2026)Reading for Oct 16, 2026
- Consumer prices (CPI), change from a year earlier3.7%Up 0.4 points from 3.4% (Aug 2026)Reading for Sep 2026
- Unemployment rate4.2%Up 0.1 points from 4.1% (Aug 2026)Reading for Sep 2026
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate7.40%Unchanged from 7.40% (Oct 8, 2026)Reading for Oct 15, 2026
- Recession probability0.6%Up 0.4 points from 0.2% (Jul 2026)Reading for Aug 2026
Data checked Oct 17, 2026. Each figure shows the date of its own reading; monthly figures describe an earlier month and can be revised.
The Treasury yield curve
On Oct 16, 2026 the 10-year yield was 0.35 points above the 2-year yield, so the curve sloped upward.
- Today (Oct 16, 2026)
- A month ago (Sep 16, 2026)
- A year ago (Oct 16, 2025)
Show the yields as a table
| Maturity | Oct 16, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.12% | 3.96% | 4.20% |
| 2M | 4.17% | 4.07% | 4.10% |
| 3M | 4.26% | 4.14% | 4.02% |
| 6M | 4.34% | 4.22% | 3.79% |
| 1Y | 4.46% | 4.45% | 3.54% |
| 2Y | 4.74% | 4.74% | 3.41% |
| 3Y | 4.82% | 4.82% | 3.42% |
| 5Y | 4.89% | 4.86% | 3.55% |
| 7Y | 4.98% | 4.94% | 3.74% |
| 10Y | 5.09% | 5.01% | 3.99% |
| 20Y | 5.47% | 5.39% | 4.56% |
| 30Y | 5.43% | 5.35% | 4.58% |
What this means: The yield curve shows what the US Treasury pays to borrow for 1 month up to 30 years. It usually slopes upward, because longer loans pay more. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields, the curve is called inverted.
Economic calendar
US data releases from the last few days and the next two weeks. Filter by the data provider's impact rating.
Times in your time zone (EDT)
Monday, Oct 19
- 10:00 AMNAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)Medium impactActual—Forecast31Previous32
Tuesday, Oct 20
- 8:30 AMHousing Starts (Sep)High impactActual—Forecast1.3 MPrevious1.275 M
- 8:30 AMHousing Starts MoM (Sep)Medium impactActual—Forecast1.9%Previous−2.6%
- 10:00 AMPending Home Sales MoM (Sep)Medium impactActual—Forecast0%Previous0.3%
- 10:00 AMPending Home Sales YoY (Sep)Medium impactActual—Forecast1%Previous−4.7%
- 4:30 PMAPI Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/16)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous−11.1
Wednesday, Oct 21
- 7:00 AMMBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/16)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous7.5%
- 10:30 AMEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous−8.557
- 10:30 AMEIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct/16)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous3.518
Thursday, Oct 22
- 8:30 AMContinuing Jobless Claims (Oct/10)High impactActual—Forecast1,712 KPrevious1,710 K
- 8:30 AMInitial Jobless Claims (Oct/17)High impactActual—Forecast200 KPrevious199 K
- 8:30 AMJobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/17)High impactActual—Forecast200 KPrevious198.5 K
Friday, Oct 23
- 9:45 AMS&P Global Composite PMI (Oct)Medium impactActual—Forecast57.6 PointsPrevious58.4 Points
- 9:45 AMS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)Medium impactActual—Forecast55.6 PointsPrevious55.9 Points
- 9:45 AMS&P Global Services PMI (Oct)Medium impactActual—Forecast57.9 PointsPrevious58.8 Points
- 3:30 PMCFTC Crude Oil speculative net positionsMedium impactActual—Forecast—Previous100.3 K
- 3:30 PMCFTC Gold Speculative net positionsMedium impactActual—Forecast—Previous207.9 K
- 3:30 PMCFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positionsMedium impactActual—Forecast—Previous48.5 K
- 3:30 PMCFTC S&P 500 speculative net positionsMedium impactActual—Forecast—Previous−141 K
Monday, Oct 26
- 8:30 AMChicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)Medium impactActual—Forecast−0.1Previous−0.04
- 10:30 AMDallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous9.8
Tuesday, Oct 27
- 8:00 AMBuilding Permits MoM (Sep)Medium impactActual—Forecast−0.7%Previous−2.1%
- 8:30 AMDurable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Sep)High impactActual—Forecast0%Previous0.1%
- 8:30 AMDurable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Sep)High impactActual—Forecast0.3%Previous0.3%
- 8:30 AMDurable Goods Orders MoM (Sep)High impactActual—Forecast0.2%Previous−0.1%
- 9:00 AMS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Aug)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous2.5%
- 10:00 AMCB Consumer Confidence (Oct)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous81.9
- 10:00 AMNew Home Sales (Sep)High impactActual—Forecast—Previous0.684 K
- 4:30 PMAPI Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/23)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous—
Wednesday, Oct 28
- 7:00 AMMBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/23)Medium impactActual—Forecast—Previous—
What this means: Times are shown in your time zone. Impact is the data provider's rating of how much a release usually moves markets. Actual appears once the figure is released; Forecast is the consensus estimate beforehand.
What this page shows
- Snapshot: the latest federal funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield, consumer price inflation, unemployment rate, 30-year mortgage rate and recession probability, with the change since the previous reading.
- Yield curve: what the Treasury pays at every length from 1 month to 30 years, today and a month and a year ago.
- Calendar: the US releases coming up, with forecast and previous figures, in your own time zone.
- For members: history charts over 1 to 20 years for yield spreads, the federal funds rate, inflation, jobs, retail sales, consumer sentiment, industrial production, housing and durable goods, with recessions shaded; market health from the stocks in Stock Meadow's data; market valuation; and gold, oil, the dollar, bonds and foreign stocks through funds.
Everything here is information about what the figures are and how they have moved. It is not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
- Where does the economic data come from?
- Treasury yields, inflation, jobs and growth figures are published by US government agencies such as the Treasury, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve, and reach Stock Meadow through Financial Modeling Prep. The calendar lists US data releases with the data provider's impact rating.
- How often is it updated?
- Treasury yields update on each trading day. Monthly figures such as inflation and unemployment appear when the agencies publish them, usually weeks after the month they describe, and can be revised later. The calendar is refreshed every day.
- What is an inverted yield curve?
- The yield curve plots what the US Treasury pays to borrow for different lengths of time. Normally longer loans pay more, so the curve slopes upward. It is called inverted when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, for example when the 2-year yield is above the 10-year yield. Inversions have often come before US recessions, but the gap in time has varied a great deal.
- Is this investment advice?
- No. The page describes what the figures are and how they have moved. It does not recommend any action, and past patterns do not predict the future.
- Do I need an account to see the history charts?
- The summary on this page is open to everyone. The history charts (rates, inflation, jobs and growth over 1 to 20 years with recessions shaded), market health, market valuation and other assets are for members. Signing up is free and starts a 14-day trial with no card needed; after that it is $15 a month or $150 a year.
See 20 years of history
Open the economy page in the app for history charts of rates, inflation, jobs and growth with recessions shaded, plus market health and valuation. Sign up free for a 14-day trial, no card needed. Already a member? Go straight in.
Open the economy page