Analyst Price Target Upside: formula and how to read it

How far above (or below) today's price the analysts' average target is. Analysts' consensus price target divided by the latest closing price, minus one. A negative figure means the average target is below today's price. Targets are opinions about the next twelve months, often set after a share-price move, and a few analysts can drive the average for a lightly followed stock.

Stock Meadow groups it under Valuation, and shows it in tables as Target upside.

Price target upside = analysts' consensus price target ÷ latest closing price − 1

A stock closing at $80 whose analysts' average price target is $92 has an upside of 92 ÷ 80 − 1 = 15%. The numbers are made up for illustration.

A higher figure means analysts' average target sits further above the price. A negative figure means the average target is below the price, which usually follows a rally. Targets are opinions, so read the upside next to the number of analysts and the spread between the lowest and highest target (shown on each stock's page).

When Stock Meadow ranks stocks, a higher figure scores better.

• Analysts set and raise targets after prices move, so upside tends to be large after a fall and small after a rise. It is not an independent measurement of value.
• A lightly followed stock's average can rest on one or two targets. Check the number of analysts.
• Targets are twelve-month views and are updated irregularly; some are stale.
• Capped at +1000% to guard against data errors.

How Stock Meadow handles gaps. Usually blank when no analyst has published a price target. Extreme values are capped at 1000%+.

Treat any single metric as one clue, and read the company's financial statements before drawing a conclusion. Stock Meadow's figures are research tools based on reported data, not investment advice.

In Weighted ranking, Z-score composite and Balanced (no weak link), you choose the metrics and weights yourself, so you can include it in a custom score.

No fixed-recipe model scores it.

Read about every scoring model on the scoring models page.

• Number of Analysts: how many analysts forecast the company's earnings.
• Forward EPS Growth: how much analysts expect profit per share to grow in the next fiscal year.
• EPS Estimate Revisions (90 Days): whether analysts have been raising or cutting profit forecasts over the past three months.
• P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings): what you pay for each dollar of profit.

What is a price target?

A price target is an analyst's estimate of where a stock's price will be in about twelve months. The consensus is the average across the analysts who publish one.

Is a high price target upside a buy signal?

Not by itself. Analysts are often optimistic, and targets follow prices rather than lead them. It is better used as one input alongside valuation and the direction of earnings forecasts.

Is a higher or lower Target upside better?

When Stock Meadow ranks stocks, a higher figure scores better. That is a ranking convention, so read Target upside alongside other measures and compare similar companies.

Why is Target upside blank for some stocks?

It is usually blank when no analyst has published a price target. Stock Meadow leaves the figure blank rather than guessing it.